71 Points Is the Valkyries' Finals High, So Game 7 Rides on Whether Atlanta Gets to 70

Photo: Official WNBA headshot, credit WNBA.

The Golden State Valkyries have scored between 64 and 71 points in all six games of the WNBA Finals, while the Atlanta Dream have scored 79 or more in their three wins and 64 or fewer in their three losses. Game 7 tips tonight, Saturday, Oct. 31, at 8 p.m. ET at Chase Center. Atlanta has won every game this series in which it reached 70 and lost every game in which it did not, by our count.

ESPN's preview drew the same line: when the Dream have scored below 70 in this series, they have lost. The box scores show how wide the gap on either side of that line has been.

Golden State's 7-point band

Here is every final, with the Valkyries' total first.

| Game | Site | Valkyries | Dream | Winner | |---|---|---|---|---| | 1 (Oct. 17) | Chase Center | 68 | 64 | GSV | | 2 (Oct. 19) | Chase Center | 65 | 79 | ATL | | 3 (Oct. 21) | State Farm Arena | 71 | 97 | ATL | | 4 (Oct. 24) | State Farm Arena | 67 | 62 | GSV | | 5 (Oct. 26) | Chase Center | 64 | 55 | GSV | | 6 (Oct. 29) | State Farm Arena | 69 | 80 | ATL |

Golden State's low is 64 and its high is 71. That is an average of about 67.3, by our count, and the number barely moves whether the Valkyries win or lose. They scored 64 in a nine-point win and 71 in a 26-point loss.

The shooting explains the ceiling. Per CBS Sports, the Valkyries are shooting 34.5 percent from the field and 26.4 percent from three in the Finals.

Atlanta's 42-point swing

The Dream have ranged from 55 to 97. Nothing landed between 65 and 78.

The three-point line sorts it cleanly. In their three wins, the Dream made 7, 9 and 13 threes, 29 of 77 in all. In their three losses they made 4, 4 and 6, 14 of 74. That works out to about 38 percent in wins and 19 percent in losses, by our count from the ESPN box scores. Atlanta has never won this series with fewer than 7 made threes and never lost with more than 6.

Rhyne Howard scored 12 and 5 in the first two games, then 16, 19, 20 and 21, an average of 19 over the last four, which matches the CBS Sports figure. Per CBS Sports, Gray shot 16 of 57 and 5 of 26 from three over the first five games while playing through two dislocated fingers on her shooting hand, then went 8 of 12 and 5 of 7 from deep for 23 in Game 6.

Atlanta's 70-plus nights have come from different hands. Angel Reese scored 30 in Game 2. Reese had 21 and Howard 16 in the Game 3 blowout. Gray and Howard combined for 44 in Game 6. In the Game 4 and 5 losses, Reese scored 8 and 7.

Reese's punch-first line, checked

Reese gave the Game 7 plan after Thursday's win, per CBS Sports: "When we can punch first, we've won every single game."

By first quarters, that does not hold. Atlanta won the first quarter of Game 1, 22-14, and lost the game. It won the first quarter of Game 5, 14-13, and lost that one too. Golden State won the first quarter of Game 2, 21-18, and lost.

By halftime, it holds every time. The team leading at the half has won all six games: Golden State led 42-39 in Game 1, 42-26 in Game 4 and 25-22 in Game 5, and Atlanta led 39-37 in Game 2, 46-40 in Game 3 and 46-26 in Game 6.

That gives tonight a checkpoint. Atlanta's first-half totals in its wins were 39, 46 and 46. In its losses, 39, 26 and 22.

The one road win at Chase

Per CBS Sports, the Valkyries have six wins and one loss at home in the past month. Atlanta's lone win at Chase in this series was Game 2.

The Dream won 79-65 and got there from the free-throw line and the open floor. They went 30 of 35 at the line, forced 19 Golden State turnovers and outscored the Valkyries 19-0 in fast-break points, per the ESPN box score. They made only 7 threes, the minimum for a win in this series.

Golden State's two home wins look nothing like it. In Game 1, Atlanta made 4 of 25 threes and still had 64. In Game 5, the Dream turned it over 17 times and scored 55.

Injuries and Game 6 quotes

Golden State coach Natalie Nakase spent Thursday night trying to explain her team's start in Game 6, when Atlanta made 73.3 percent of its first-quarter shots and led 32-15, per AP. "We knew they were going to play desperate," Nakase said. "For us not to match that is disappointing and frustrating."

Two health notes matter. Te-Hina Paopao is questionable with a leg injury for Atlanta, per ESPN, and Tiffany Hayes went down in a fourth-quarter collision Thursday before Nakase said she "looked fine," per AP. Golden State holds home court because it finished the regular season two wins ahead of Atlanta, per CBS Sports.

The Valkyries have landed near 67 in every game of this series. Atlanta has led at halftime and made at least 7 threes in each of its three wins, and it reached 79 every time.

Sources

• ESPN: Game 1 box score, Game 2, Game 3, Game 4, Game 5, Game 6. Scores by quarter and at halftime for each game. Three-point makes, free throws, turnovers, fast-break points and player points.
• ESPN: Previewing Valkyries-Dream Game 7. First Game 7 in WNBA history, 8 p.m. ET Saturday, the Dream have lost when held below 70.
• ESPN: Dream vs. Valkyries Game 7 pregame and ESPN WNBA injuries. Te-Hina Paopao questionable (leg).
• CBS Sports: Dream, Valkyries set to battle in first WNBA Finals Game 7. Gray's two dislocated fingers and 16-of-57, 5-of-26 first five games, Reese quote, Valkyries six wins and one loss at home in the past month, Golden State two more regular-season wins.
• CBS Sports: WNBA Finals Game 7 predictions. Valkyries 34.5 percent and 26.4 percent from three in the Finals, Howard 19 a game over the last four.
• AP via CBS San Francisco: Nakase, Valkyries determined to avoid another slow start. Nakase quotes, Dream 73.3 percent first-quarter shooting and 32-15 lead in Game 6, Hayes collision.

Figures marked "by our count" are the desk's own math from the linked box scores.