Angel Reese Has 10 Turnovers in the Dream's 2 WNBA Finals Losses Heading Into Game 5

Photo inside card: WNBA.com. Angel Reese, Atlanta Dream forward, official WNBA headshot.

The WNBA Finals reach Game 5 on Monday at 8 p.m. ET at Chase Center with the Golden State Valkyries and the Atlanta Dream tied 2-2, and in all four games so far the team that committed fewer turnovers won. Angel Reese has 10 turnovers and 22 points in Atlanta's two losses and 4 turnovers with 51 points in its two wins, so Golden State's best route to a 3-2 lead runs through Reese's touches before it runs through Golden State's own three-point shooting.

That is the argument the box score totals hide. Atlanta has outscored Golden State 302-271 across the series, and it has done it at the foul line. The Dream have made 90 of 116 free throws. The Valkyries have made 49 of 65. That is a 41-point gap at the line in four games, by our count from the CBS Sports box scores. Take the free throws away and Golden State has scored 222 points to Atlanta's 212.

A team that gives up 41 points at the stripe needs extra shots somewhere else. Golden State has found them in both wins and in neither loss.

The shot count tells the series

Here is the field-goal-attempt split from each box score, with the turnover counts next to it.

| Game | Result | GSV FGA | ATL FGA | GSV TO | ATL TO | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | 1 (Oct. 17, San Francisco) | GSV 68-64 | 78 | 64 | 8 | 12 | | 2 (Oct. 19, San Francisco) | ATL 79-65 | 61 | 62 | 18 | 14 | | 3 (Oct. 21, Atlanta) | ATL 97-71 | 69 | 69 | 15 | 8 | | 4 (Oct. 24, Atlanta) | GSV 67-62 | 72 | 54 | 9 | 17 |

The Valkyries took 14 more shots than Atlanta in Game 1 and 18 more in Game 4. In Game 2 they took one fewer, and in Game 3 the count was even. Their record follows that line exactly, by our count.

The turnover counts above are player turnovers from the CBS Sports box scores. Team turnover totals run a little higher. The Valkyries' own Game 5 preview lists Golden State's Game 2 total as a franchise-record 19 and says Atlanta committed a series-high 18 in Game 4. Under either count, the side with fewer giveaways has won every game. ESPN's team totals have Golden State at 10, 19, 17 and 9 and Atlanta at 12, 14, 10 and 18.

Golden State's shooting does not explain its wins. The Valkyries shot 32.1 percent in Game 1 and 36.1 percent in Game 4. Their best shooting night of the series, 12 of 30 from three in Game 3, came in a 26-point loss. Across four games they are 30 of 112 from deep, 26.8 percent, by our count.

Where Reese fits

Reese is the clearest version of the pattern. In Game 2 she scored 30 on 10-of-16 shooting with 16 rebounds and two turnovers. In Game 3 she went 7 of 12 for 21 points and 12 rebounds, again with two turnovers. Atlanta won both by double digits.

In Game 1 she had 14 points on 5-of-11 shooting with four turnovers, and Atlanta scored 8 points in the fourth quarter. In Game 4 she shot 2 of 12, scored 8 points and turned it over six times. Combined, that is 7-of-23 shooting in the two losses against 17-of-28 in the two wins, by our count from the box scores. CBS Sports noted, per the Bay Area Brief, another version of the same split: the winner of the scoring matchup between Reese and Gabby Williams has won every game. Williams beat her 26-14 and 17-8. Reese won 30-14 and 21-15.

Reese also feeds the free-throw gap that keeps Atlanta level. She has made 22 of 29 free throws in the series.

The Valkyries lead the league in points allowed at 75.1 per game, per the Associated Press preview. Atlanta averaged 91.3 points in the regular season and is at 75.5 in the Finals (302 points in four games, by our count). Golden State held the Dream to 64 and 62 in its two wins.

What changed in Game 4

The Game 4 rotation change is covered in our Game 4 Take, so here is the part that matters for Monday. Golden State committed 9 turnovers and Atlanta committed 17, per the box score. The Valkyries turned Atlanta's giveaways into 16 points, per the Bay Area Brief, and won the steals 8-4, per the Valkyries' preview. Veronica Burton played 38 minutes and did not commit a turnover.

Golden State also won without the free-throw battle going its way. The Valkyries were called for 26 fouls, Atlanta went 22 of 31 at the line, and Golden State still won by five, because it took 72 shots to Atlanta's 54. Kiah Stokes grabbed 16 rebounds, and the Valkyries won the paint 38-28 after losing it 44-20 in Game 3, per the team.

Watch the foul count. Golden State's fouls went 13, 23, 21, 26 across the four games (CBS Sports box scores). If that number stays in the mid-20s, Atlanta gets 30 or more free throws again, and the Valkyries need another double-digit shot advantage to cover it.

The decision for Game 5

Golden State is 17-5 at home and Atlanta is 15-7 on the road, and sportsbooks have the Valkyries as 1.5-point favorites, per the AP preview.

In both Golden State wins, the Valkyries forced at least 12 turnovers and took at least 14 more shots than Atlanta. In both losses, they forced 14 or fewer and did not win the shot count. If Golden State forces 12 or more turnovers and wins the shot count by double digits, it has the profile of its two wins. If Atlanta stays in single digits, as it did with eight in Game 3, and the shot count is close, Golden State has the profile of its two losses.

Two things to check by halftime. Count Reese's turnovers, since she had two in each Atlanta win and four and six in each loss. Then check the field-goal attempt line in the box score. If Golden State is up eight or more attempts at the break, it is playing the game it has won twice.

Neither franchise has won a WNBA title, per the Bay Area Brief. Game 6 is scheduled for Thursday in Atlanta. The San Francisco Chronicle reported that the Dream's venue for that game was unsettled, with the 3,500-seat Gateway Center among the options. A Game 7, if needed, would be back at Chase Center on Saturday, Oct. 31, per the Valkyries.

Sources

• CBS Sports: Game 1 box score, Valkyries 68, Dream 64
• CBS Sports: Game 2 box score, Dream 79, Valkyries 65
• CBS Sports: Game 3 box score, Dream 97, Valkyries 71
• ESPN: Game 4 box score and team totals
• CBS Sports: Game 4 box score, Valkyries 67, Dream 62
• Golden State Valkyries: WNBA Finals Game 5 preview
• Golden State Valkyries: Game 3 recap
• theScore (Associated Press): Golden State, Atlanta tied 2-2 heading into Game 5
• Bay Area Brief: Valkyries vs. Dream Game 5 preview
• San Francisco Chronicle: Valkyries found a formula for beating the Dream

Figures marked "by our count" are the desk's own math from the linked box scores.