Anthony Edwards for MVP, the Knicks in the Play-In and Portland in the Top Four: The Dyme's 2026-27 NBA Picks

Photo: NBA.com, Anthony Edwards

Anthony Edwards opened his season in Miami on Tuesday night with 45 points, nine threes and 10 rebounds. Minnesota won 131-106, and Giannis Antetokounmpo's first game for the Heat ended in a 25-point loss.

Two nights in, the league already looks like the one the books priced. The Thunder and Spurs sit at 61 wins on the Polymarket board Covers tracks, and nobody else in the West is close. The defending champion Knicks, per Sporting News, lost 106-100 on ring night to Philadelphia, which now has LeBron James and Jaylen Brown next to Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. Wembanyama shot 1-of-13 in a 116-104 loss to the Thunder.

The season thesis

The West is a two-team race on paper, and the East is wide open. Oklahoma City's win total is 65.5 on one preseason board and 61.5 at DraftKings. San Antonio is 58.5 to 61. The next team in the West, Minnesota, sits at 48.5.

The East has no team that high. Boston is 53.5, Detroit 51.5, New York 50.5 and Cleveland 49.5. By The Dyme's math, four East teams are priced within four wins of each other at the top. A pack that tight is where a champion can fall out of the top six.

Sleeper: Portland finishes top four in the West

Portland's win total is 38.5 on the nbaniac preseason board, below the 42-40 record it posted last season. Polymarket has the Blazers at 42-plus.

Wednesday's opener pushed the other way. Portland beat Phoenix 124-83 and led by as many as 52. Damian Lillard scored 25 with six threes in his first regular-season game back from a torn Achilles. Ja Morant had 14 points and eight assists in his debut after the trade that sent Jerami Grant and Kris Murray to Memphis. Deni Avdija averaged 24.2 points last season.

The pick is bigger than a playoff spot. Portland finishes ahead of Minnesota and everyone else in the West not named Oklahoma City or San Antonio, and gets home court in the first round. By The Dyme's math, that means beating a 38.5-win line by about 12 wins.

Popular pick that misses: the Knicks land in the play-in

New York won the title last season. Jalen Brunson was Finals MVP and scored 45 in the clincher, per Sporting News. The Knicks are priced at 50.5 wins.

Ring night went to Philadelphia, 106-100. The Sixers now have LeBron James and Jaylen Brown next to Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. Toronto won 46 games last season and reacquired Kawhi Leonard, who averaged a career-high 27.9 points. Detroit went 60-22 and opened by coming back from 22 down to beat Boston.

The pick: the defending champs finish seventh or worse and have to play their way into the bracket. The East top six is Detroit, Philadelphia, Boston, Toronto, Cleveland and Indiana. Indiana went 19-63 last season, per Basketball-Reference; putting the Pacers in the top six is our pick.

Letdown: Miami misses the postseason entirely

Miami's win total is 47.5 on the nbaniac board, 4.5 more than the 43-39 the Heat went last season. The trade for Giannis Antetokounmpo is the reason.

The opener showed the problem. Minnesota won 131-106 at Kaseya Center and outscored the Heat 63-24 from three. Miami shot 8-of-33 from deep, and Anthony Edwards made nine threes by himself. Antetokounmpo shot 13-of-19 for 35 and fouled out. Miami has now lost three straight season openers, the third time that has happened in franchise history, per AP.

The pick is Miami under 47.5 and outside the top 10. No play-in.

Award picks

MVP: Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves (+1800 at DraftKings). He averaged 28.8 points on 48.9% shooting last season. He opened with 45 points, nine threes and 10 rebounds against Miami. He and Wilt Chamberlain are the only players with 40 or more in back-to-back openers, per the Wolves' postgame notes. Wembanyama is the favorite at +210 at DraftKings.

Defensive Player of the Year: Ausar Thompson, Pistons. He made First Team All-Defense, finished third in the voting and averaged two steals last season. Wembanyama was the first unanimous winner. The pick is that voters give a perimeter defender on a top East team the award.

Rookie of the Year: Darius Acuff Jr., Kings (+1000 at DraftKings). Sacramento took him seventh after he won SEC Player of the Year at Arkansas. The Kings have the lowest win total in the West, 22.5 at nbaniac. A bad team means more shots for a rookie lead guard. Cameron Boozer is the favorite at +300 at DraftKings.

Sixth Man of the Year: Anfernee Simons, 76ers (+1800 at DraftKings). He averaged 14.3 points last season. Philadelphia's starting group of Maxey, Brown, James and Embiid leaves the bench scoring to him. Ajay Mitchell is the favorite at +600 at DraftKings.

Most Improved Player: Donovan Clingan, Trail Blazers (+5000 at DraftKings). He went from 6.5 points and 7.9 rebounds as a rookie to 12.1 and 11.6 last season, and made 34.1% of his threes. The Portland pick needs him to take another step.

Coach of the Year: Micah Nori, Trail Blazers (+1400 at DraftKings). He came over from Minnesota's bench. If Portland finishes top four on a 38.5-win line, the coach gets the credit. Darko Rajakovic is the favorite at +800 at DraftKings.

What the first week sets up

Friday's slate has Detroit at Miami and Portland at Sacramento. Oklahoma City hosts Denver on Thursday night. San Antonio hosts Houston on Friday, its next chance at a first win.

Sources

• ESPN, NBA opening day results: https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/50220591/nba-opening-day-live-updates-highlights
• RealGM, Oct. 20 scores: https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/scores/2026-10-20
• Covers, 2026-27 win totals (Polymarket): https://www.covers.com/nba/win-totals-odds
• NBAniac, 2026-27 preseason win totals: https://nbaniac.com/futures
• Sporting News, win totals and awards odds (DraftKings): https://www.sportingnews.com/us/betting/news/nba-awards-odds-2026-27-mvp-roy-coy-6th-man-best-bets-promos/862e85d251beaef19a8778c4
• Scores and Stats, NBA awards odds (DraftKings via ESPN): https://www.scoresandstats.com/blog/nba-awards-odds/
• NBA.com and AP, Blazers 124, Suns 83: https://www.nba.com/game/phx-vs-por-0022600092
• Miami Herald, Timberwolves 131, Heat 106: https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nba/miami-heat/article317697665.html
• AP, Pacers 123, Pelicans 120: https://apnews.com/article/pacers-pelicans-score-fc4db14661014fba476c5b68ef901d1f
• Basketball-Reference, 2025-26 standings: https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2026_standings.html
• AP, Timberwolves 131, Heat 106 (Edwards 45): https://apnews.com/article/timberwolves-heat-score-anthony-edwards-giannis-1585c46b1917905c717a3a11e06ee6e3
• Timberwolves postgame notes, Oct. 21: https://cdn.nba.com/teams/uploads/sites/1610612750/2026/10/10.21-MIA-Postgame-Notes.pdf